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Author
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Topic: Recession in North America?
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Werner Molders
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 03:52 PM
  
With the recent move by Alan Greenspan & the Federal Reserve and the continued lacklustre performance by tech stocks, I was wondering what you guys thought about this as being perhaps the signal of a period of recession in the US, and like with anything else, in Canada too.Just some fodder for discussion.  Werner ------------------
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Smokey
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 05:15 PM
I think when Greenspan lowered the interest
rates he did the right thing allthough
belatedly. I think it will have a positive
effect on the economy. As long as energy
prices are so high I think we are going to
be in for a certain amount of trouble.I also think Greenspan tried to wreck the
economy from 8-10 months ago until the
election with his interest rate hikes. I
believe he did this to help Bush get elected.
I think he has held off lowering rates until
just recently because he wants to make damn
sure it don't straighten out until after
Bush is in office. IP: Logged |
Jerry
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 05:37 PM
Must be that same right wing conspiracy that invented Lewinsky.IP: Logged |
JT
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 06:11 PM
There's no recession coming. That's just our President Dubya furiously flapping his lips so that no one will be able to read them. Bush is so worried about getting accused of like-father-like-son that he will do anything to ram this tax cut through regardless of whether it's a good idea or not. But in the end, I guess it's up to Shadow-President Cheney. Then again, Bush's flapping may actually artificially induce a recession... either way, he is basically just positioning himself so he can put the blame on someone else if the whole thing goes south or, conversely, take credit if it keeps chugging along like it has in the past 6 years. [This message has been edited by JT (edited 01-07-2001).] IP: Logged |
Werner Molders
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 07:08 PM
Whoa, didn't mean to fire up Election 2000 SDOE Debate, Round 2. I didn't realize that in the US everything is so inextricably linked to whether you're in this camp or that camp. Personally I think that if the US takes a nose dive, Paul Martin (Canadian Finance Minister) is the wrong man at the helm. Or perhaps the right man, because people will realize his financial management abilities have been overrated. "Canada! Debt-free in two hundred years!" Ugh. Werner ------------------
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Tailslide
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 07:37 PM
In the big picture, we're just getting dragged along for the ride. Although with our country so far in debt the lows (and highs) will be a lot lower than they should be. With the liberals getting 45% of the vote and 65% of the seats it's rather ironic that we wound up in the same position as the US, except we wound up with a government that will not take care of the huge debt. I also think greenspan could have been more aggressive reducing interest rates. If there is a recession I'm hoping it will be more of a 'pause' as investments are diverted from .com startups to profitable businesses. Lots of layoffs, lack of short term growth but in the end a stronger economy. Unfortunately this may mean the "little guys" get swallowed up at bargain prices by the big players.. microsoft, ibm, etc.. TS IP: Logged |
robert s
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 07:48 PM
I think there is going to be a recession in the near future simply because of energy prices. The huge run up in oil, gas, natural gas, and eletric prices will prevent people from spending on other items. Dare I say trickle down??? Wish I knew what caused the amazing turn around of energy prices in a two year period. Any ideas on why oil prices went up so much? IP: Logged |
Tailslide
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 09:59 PM
OPEC voted to restrict production.
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Smokey
Pilot
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posted 01-07- 10:14 PM
The oil companies are crooks.IP: Logged |
Mirthain
Pilot
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posted 01-08- 12:07 AM
Wow Smokey, we agree.... ;}
JT, Oh please... that was so transparent. ;}
I agree that things are going to be rough with the much larger number of private investors. We are actually slumping into a worse situation than the '80s were leading into. People think they are going to get rich quick in the market. They are moving thier money around to reflect that and are more susceptable to propaganda than proffesional investors were. Thats not to say that it didn't happen before, just less often than what we are going to experience. Things are going to take until summer before they really start to settle a bit and give everyone a chance to see what is in store for the future.
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Mirthain=FC=
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Poniat
Pilot
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posted 01-08- 02:04 PM
To let the Russian survive the slump. She has now an economic growth thanks to high oil prices. Pity there's no trickle down coming from that. It's an amazing situation of hyper-rich party secretaries turned 'capitalists'. The energy comanies own everything with no control from the people whatsoever. Why? See the lists of ten most prominent people in economy and in politics. As far as I know the lists were identical with an axception of Jelcyn. But he has a doughter (dig on that story with her accounts in Switzerland to learn more). How much it has changed since the rise of that other bloke... watsisname... aah, Putin, I don't know.
Regarding that economic growth, hmm have they increased production output, quality, eficiency? I would be glad to hear a positive answer, I'm afraid that there are indications it's just the high oil prices artificially inlated the figures.
Anybody heard of them restationing nuclear wepons in Kaliningrad (Konigsborg) region?
No? You'd better not ask, I'd rather not to talk about it 
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9./JG3_Poniat
[This message has been edited by Poniat (edited 01-08-2001).] IP: Logged |
Werner Molders
Pilot
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posted 01-08- 07:20 PM
a-ha! Poniat's reading this thread! Did you not get my emails from a few weeks ago? How are the Polish sounds coming along, I need those files soon, and the medals too! Poland is lagging behind the other countries now, and it started out in front!!Email me! keepinga@cadvision.com Werner ------------------
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Falck
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 12:10 AM
The US has a hell of an energy problem on its hands. People might as well get used to going to alternate forms of energy now. Ive got republican ideals but Bush worries me. Its difficult for me to believe that, with oil tycoons as pres and vp that fuel cell research will go much further during their presidencies.Nothing pisses me off more than holding back techological progression. IP: Logged |
Sv
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 01:03 AM
The economy has been so good for so long, poeple are nit buying because they all ready bought! This is a real problem! Look at Ford, etc. - they say they can't sell more cars 'cause everyone all ready done got one!The energy issue is big too... The tech stocks were over-valued - this was bound to happen... I think we will rebound pretty quick, maybe two years is my guess... also I don't think things are going to get too bad - just worse... IP: Logged |
Poniat
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 08:12 AM
Ooops, I got cought!I swear I was going to record them last night but met Pye in the lobby and... you know, got carried away. It was only my second on-line venture in months. Just installed the PP6 Take this not as an excuse (of which I don't have any) but an explanation. I will send a batch of wavs tonight (I will restrain myself from firing up SDOE this time, what a bloody time wasting piece of software that is!  ------------------
9./JG3_Poniat [This message has been edited by Poniat (edited 01-09-2001).] IP: Logged |
DanW
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 10:27 AM
I bought gas in San Antonio for $1.09 the other day...what's wrong? IP: Logged |
Smokey
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 12:18 PM
Not really Mirth because I believe all
companies are crooks. The oil companies are
just part of a greater whole. IP: Logged |
Mirthain
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 07:20 PM
Hey Smokey, I really got to know something, and I am being honest here, no sarcasm.. for once.. hehe
If you really hate business so much, why didn't you go to work for yourself? I really wonder about that.... you confuse me in that regard.
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Mirthain=FC=
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Smokey
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 07:47 PM
I don't have to work for myself. I'm retired.
I just had to put up with big business law
breaking crap for 30 years to get that way.IP: Logged |
Jerry
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 09:11 PM
Well let's see here....all business is crooked. It's the Government's role to regulate business so I guess the Government is crooked for looking the other way. Smokey thinks it's a Union's role to "protect" the worker's but unionized businesses are also crooked and the Union's don't demand that they be honest so the Union's must be crooked too! And if it's obvious to Smokey that all business is crooked than it must be obvious to a lot of people, and they don't get together to do anything about it so they must be crooked! What's really revealing is that I used to own a business and I don't remember being crooked. Thanks for opening my eyes to that Smokey. Tell me Smokey, is anyone honest? IP: Logged |
Smokey
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 09:40 PM
"Well let's see here....all business is crooked. It's the Government's role to regulate business so I guess the Government is crooked for looking the other way." "That's pretty much it Jerry as far as I'm
concerned. The Company I worked for started
a union bust which led to a labor dispute
that lasted 6 years through the Bush and
Clinton administrations. The Co. broke over
400 labor laws, at the time it was the highest
by any corporation in America. Did anything
happen to the CEO or any of the executives?
No, no arrests, fines no nothing. The difference between Bush and Clinton? I think
the company would have busted our union if
Bush had of gotten relected in 1992." "Smokey thinks it's a Union's role to "protect" the worker's but unionized businesses are also crooked and the Union's don't demand that they be honest so the Union's must be crooked too!" Thanks to republican presidents and republican
congressmen the unions don't have the power to
stop the crookedness. They desire and try to
keep them on the straight and narrow but they
just can't except for a few small things, thanks
to watered down labor laws. "And if it's obvious to Smokey that all business is crooked than it must be obvious to a lot of people, and they don't get together to do anything about it so they must be crooked!" More like gutless but if looking away is
crooked then a lot of them are. "What's really revealing is that I used to own a business and I don't remember being crooked. Thanks for opening my eyes to that Smokey." I can't answer this one Jerry because I never
knew you or your business. The fact that your
business failed may mean you weren't crooked
enough or even too honest. "Tell me Smokey, is anyone honest?" They're not in the majority. And they're not
going to be running the country for the next
4 years. [This message has been edited by Smokey (edited 01-09-2001).] IP: Logged |
Jerry
Pilot
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posted 01-09- 10:05 PM
Good responses Smokey. I do think you are overly pessimistic however. Just because the company you worked for was a bad apple doesn't mean they all are.IMO the majority of people are honest. That includes the majority of business managers and the majority of politicians. If the majority of our society is dishonest, like you say, we wouldn't be the most powerful country in the world and people from around the world wouldn't be trying to get here. As far as a Union's inability to insist on legal behavior. Union's can still strike. At the bargaining table everything is negotiable. It depends on how badly the Union wants it. Been there, done that. IP: Logged |
UniversalWolf
Cadet
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posted 01-10- 03:12 AM
In the short term there will be some economic trouble here in the U.S. but it won't last too long.Some people are getting hit with layoffs, which is bad, but on the other hand, the biggest complaint businesses have had over the last few years is that they can't find enough qualified employees (I never use the word 'workers' because it sounds too Marxist, and I think Marx was a crackpot). Also, when people are forced out of their jobs some of them inevitably end up starting new businesses, some of which will succeed. I think internet industries will come back (though not as wildly as before) with the increased availability of high-speed connections. The combination of Greenspan's recent interest-rate hikes and higher oil prices have combined to put us in our current fix. Sometimes I think Greenspan is a fiend, but then sometimes I think he's a genius. On the one hand he's at least partially responsible for the downturn, but on the other hand what would have happened if the Nasdaq had collapsed by 50 percent over the course of a few days rather than over the course of a few months? He may have let us down easy and avoided a real panic. I wish there was something I could do make things better in Russia. It seems to me that your biggest problem is that your government is full of crooks. We have crooks in our government too, obviously, but not as bad as in Russia. That's a tough problem to solve. You can't have a democracy if the people running the show don't really believe in democracy. IP: Logged |
Da Jug head
Pilot
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posted 01-10- 07:24 AM
Here's a sobering thought for you- The average middle income US citizen owes $120 a month more in bills than they earn.This debt is typically financed by- more debt! (Using credit cards to pay bills and getting new credita cards and using them to pay the bill on other credit cards). So what happens when all these people can't get any more new credit cards? The current budget surplus has been created by Clinton taking out short term loans and several other hi-jinks. Some of those come due in the next 4 years. Energy prices will continue to rise over the next 2-3 years. IP: Logged |
Mirthain
Pilot
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posted 01-10- 07:37 PM
I guess my view on it Smokey is that in my own experience, Unions are even more corrupt than the companies they are trying to screw. As I said in another post, some aren't and actually do work for thier people, but they are few and far between. I still have yet to see anything good come from modern unions. But that is what they showed me.
Russia has it double hard.... we have slowly worked to this point in the U.S., but the russian people are expecting to suddenly be in the same position as the U.S. is... it will take time.. lots of it.... there is much that has to change, and many things will take decades to re-engineer socially. Until then, there will be a seperation of rich and poor.... but probably not much more than what was there in the first place... only more apparent. I do hope it comes around faster, but probably not......
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Mirthain=FC=
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