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Author Topic:   Today's math lesson
Sv
Pilot
posted 11-14- 02:01 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Sv   Click Here to Email Sv     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
We all know that the polls told of a statistical tie, and it was. What is intersting is that, with the voting margin of error we have using today's technology, we have an election that is indeed a statistical tie as well!

For Gore to suggest that the will of the people is not being done, it clearly and logically incorrect. There can be no clear winner. In a way, what we have is a coin toss- or in this case, two coin tosses that Bush won.

Gore assumes that each time we hand count the votes we get closer to the truth. If this is the case, then will Gore agree to this: we will continue to recount until he (by chance of course) wins. Then we will do one more recount, one step closer to the truth - and we will select that winer as the president.

Of course he would not agree, because statisticaly he only has a 50% chance of winning the next recount, just as he did for the first two coin tosses.

In the end Gore is only happy with the answer of recounting again and again until he wins, so the more margin of error the faster we will see himself come up a winner. Or, if we only recount the Gore rich areas, his lead will be increased due to the new votes being counted.

Mathamaticaly speaking, if there is an entire manual FL re-count, then Bush's lead SHOULD increase. Probability dictates that it is still a 50/50 chance for either candidate - we just do not have the technology to ever get a 100% accurate vote count. But if we re-count all the votes manually it should magnify the original FL numbers, and that should incrase Bush's lead.

Interesting

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Lothar
Pilot
posted 11-14- 02:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lothar   Click Here to Email Lothar     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Right, that's why I don't understand why the Bush camp is so against a hand-recount. If we recount some counties, lets just recount the whole state. I don't think Americans are that rushed to find out who won. No one is taking office until January anyway. Whoever wins will have a stronger presidency if they can say 'we took our time, we counted the votes as accurately as possible, and I won'. I say this realizing that it means Bush will almost surely win.

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Stark
Pilot
posted 11-14- 03:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Stark     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Lothar -

The Bush camp is against it because the Democrats ONLY want to recount specific precincts in specific counties. They have already said they don't like the idea of a statewide manual recount on several occasions.

-Stark

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ArgonV
Pilot
posted 11-14- 03:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ArgonV   Click Here to Email ArgonV     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Urge to kill rising....

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Stark
Pilot
posted 11-14- 03:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Stark     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Heh... Go with it! After all, it's awfully hard to actually injure someone through a message board... although... I have laughed so hard I've hurt myself while reading this board...

-Stark

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Whirlwind
Pilot
posted 11-14- 04:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Whirlwind   Click Here to Email Whirlwind     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The only reason the election is so close is that no matter how many times you flip a coin, half the flips come up heads, half the flips come up tails - laws of probability. Right now, America is getting the tail side.

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Smokey
Pilot
posted 11-14- 06:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Smokey   Click Here to Email Smokey     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Everyone here should agree that an accurate
count of the votes is what is desired.
The votes that are hand counted are being
done so under the watchful eye of the
republicans, democrats, and the news media.
Therefore the votes should be counted any-
where in the country where their appears to
be controversy. If it takes a month then so
be it.

The Bush effort to stop this is only hurting
him. If he gets the presidency under these
circumstances it will only water down his
presidency. He will forever be known as
the president that got elected without a full
accounting of the votes due to legal
manouvering.

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Sv
Pilot
posted 11-14- 07:38 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Sv   Click Here to Email Sv     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
No Smokey, everyone here should hope that the laws in FL in place just for this even are followed. These laws were created and put in place just for such an occasion as this, why have laws at all if they are just cast aside?

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Smokey
Pilot
posted 11-14- 09:53 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Smokey   Click Here to Email Smokey     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As I understand it, asking for a manual
recount falls within FL law. Seems pretty
silly to have a law that allows for a manual
recount then have it restricted because of
an unreasonable deadline. Bottom line is
if Bush wins without everyone's vote counting
then he will be viewed as an illigitiment
president. All the arguing in the world
won't change that.

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Sv
Pilot
posted 11-14- 10:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Sv   Click Here to Email Sv     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If we count only Gore's area, how is that any better?

The law allows for a manual recount, but it must be done right away. The law is very clear in all aspects - if only the press would read the law! I will find it again...

If they really want a hand recount, it is only fair to recount all of Florida. How could one argue that it is fair to count Gore strong areas only? Why are their votes more important? This is the case that the Bush camp is taking to the federal level, and I am on their side - if not happy with the approach.

I agree that the election is too close not to do a recount (although I remain unsure about how accurate hand counting really is) - but if it is not in all of FL, then it is clearly a dirty trick.

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Spanky the Mad Dog
Pilot
posted 11-14- 11:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Spanky the Mad Dog   Click Here to Email Spanky the Mad Dog     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Spanky here...

No Tv and no beer make homer go crazy.

Urge to kill FADING

FADING

fading

Gone.

(Some one starts bitching about the recount again.)

Urge to kill RISING.

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JT
Pilot
posted 11-15- 12:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for JT   Click Here to Email JT     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Some of you will be shocked by this, but I find myself in agreement with Karen Hughes and the Bush people on this. Even though the machine count is far from accurate, it is a consistant standard from state to state. To count only Florida votes by hand creates an inconsistancy.

I think the recount ought to be stopped and we should live with whoever the overseas absentee ballots give us.


[This message has been edited by JT (edited 11-15-2000).]

[This message has been edited by JT (edited 11-15-2000).]

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weasel
Pilot
posted 11-15- 06:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for weasel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Right on JT. How many times are we going to recount these votes? Gore's on strike three now and he is still standing over home plate.
weasel

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Mk10 225th
Pilot
posted 11-15- 01:51 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mk10 225th   Click Here to Email Mk10 225th     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Or, on the other hand, you could say the Bush camp is ahead in the top of the 9th, and wants to call the game there.

Also, the Bush camp has gone to federal court to have any manual re-count in Florida judged unconstitutional. Hmmmm...

Haven't I heard something about less federal government being better for the people?

Here's the main interesting point: From what I have heard, where the manual re-counts are taking place, there is someone representing the Democratic Party, and someone representing the Republican Party at each table.

The reports I have heard (and boy, I have been watching w-a-a-a-y too much of this crap), in 99.9% of the cases, there is actually no dispute between the party's representatives as to how a vote should be counted.

It seems like the main partisan discord is taking place OUTSIDE of the manual re-counting centers, not INSIDE. Funny that a lot of volunteers eating Domino's pizza and drinking Diet Cokes seem to be conducting themselves better than a bunch of partisan hired guns in $1000 suits.

I also find it refreshing that the majority of the American people actually want to reach a point where they feel that the true will of the people, whichever way it goes, is heard.

And no matter what happens, this is democracy in action. This is what happens when you have our form of government, as opposed to someone walking into the canvassing centers with an AK-47, and says, "Hey, guess what. THIS guy won."

Now instead of that, we have attorneys carrying brief cases, and of course there's a valid argument either way as to which is worse, but this is the type of government we have here, and how we have chosen to do things.

I am also happy that so far, outside of raucous rhetoric and some sign-carrying, we have been free from violent outbursts, and have seen the differing sides use the system (some would say abuse ), and hash it out the way we're supposed to.

I also believe that as the eyes of the world are upon us, it is important that we demonstrate how we here in the United States handle situations like this.

As it continues to unfold, it is important that both sides maintain decorum, and the due process of law is followed.

This, more than a quick and easy solution, is the true demonstration to the people of the world that our system works.

Who really knows how it will turn out? The important issue here is that we truly feel, one way or the other, that the will of the people has been heard, and that the next President of the United States was elected to office truly, fairly, and by due process of law.

I know this sounds crazy, and Prop will probably say I'm full of crap (Prop, don't ever change, I love ya man!), but I have gotten to the point where I don't care as much any more about WHO wins, but HOW. I want the how to be the will of the people, not a bunch of attorneys, and not the members of one political party over another.

Unfortunately, in our country, that means a bunch of attorneys and judges deciding what the will of the people is.

Still better than someone walking into a canvassing center with an AK-47.

Hey, they're not holding any re-counts in Post Offices are they?

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Mk10 Maj=225th=

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Mirthain
Pilot
posted 11-15- 05:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mirthain   Click Here to Email Mirthain     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
ok, but here is the fun part... all of this is probably mute anyway since there is no way to control how the Electoral College members will vote. so the popular election can do whatever it wants and then the college jumps in and says, Boo.. we want Nadar.. and there you go. So really this whole "Will of the People" thing is really funny. Add that to the fact that really none of us can tolerate stupid people at work, so why are we allowing for them to be stupid in the polling place? Sentimentality? Oh please.... Stop, your killing me.... This guy THINKS he may have messed up. There are too many perhaps, maybe's and could haves for this to be even remotely right. I agree that State law needs to be followed, and guess what people, you screw up your vote, you lose it.. period. we cannot keep this up or we will fighting over what is what for every election from now till who knows when. If you screw it up, it is gone. If you can't deal with that move to where they have easier ballots. You like florida, then perhaps you should have bitched when it was released to the press 2 weeks before the election. Or 4 years ago when a similar ballot was used. Please people, don't claim incompitence as a reason for not getting it right. Because that is not a reason. There is a certain amount of intelligence needed to use any ballot. And if you can't figure it out.... well, there you go....

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Mirthain=FC=

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Lothar
Pilot
posted 11-15- 06:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lothar   Click Here to Email Lothar     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I learned recently that a full set of electoral college voters are chosen by each party, and that the party that wins uses it's voters. This means that if Bush wins, the FL electoral voters will be hard-core Republicans. I'd be very surprised if any of the electoral votes sways from the majority winner.

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Sv
Pilot
posted 11-15- 07:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Sv   Click Here to Email Sv     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Lothar,

The tempation of instant and grand fame could be an issue

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Jerry
Pilot
posted 11-15- 07:56 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jerry   Click Here to Email Jerry     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Don't forget Lothar, the impeachment vote (as important and partisan an issue as it was) did not split 100% along party lines. And these were Republicans and Democrats who had to live with their party for years after the vote. The electoral college voters have a lot less to lose if they switch their vote.

Since far more Republicans than Democrats voted against their own party on the impeachment issue (voting on principal rather than partisan politics as Republicans are more prone to do ) GW should be nervous.

I can very well see some electoral college voters thinking that since Gore won the total popular vote that he should be President, as a matter of principle, regardless how a particular state did.

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Smokey
Pilot
posted 11-15- 08:33 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Smokey   Click Here to Email Smokey     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Gore made a good offer. Hand count the whole
state of Florida. Add in the overseas
ballots. Winner take all. Drop all legal
wrangling. Bush should take it.

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ReaperMan
Pilot
posted 11-15- 08:54 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ReaperMan   Click Here to Email ReaperMan     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think they should do what Smokey suggests: recount the entire state including overseas absentee ballots.

Now, where's my AK-47?...

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-=TheReaper=-

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Jerry
Pilot
posted 11-15- 09:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jerry   Click Here to Email Jerry     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sounds good to me too. Since Smokey also thinks it's a good offer I must have overlooked something.

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Mirthain
Pilot
posted 11-15- 09:56 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mirthain   Click Here to Email Mirthain     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Of course Smokey is forgetting that Bush offered that a couple of days ago....

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Mirthain=FC=

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ArgonV
Pilot
posted 11-15- 11:06 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ArgonV   Click Here to Email ArgonV     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
:Taps pointer stick on the board: "Kids, please take out your pencils and and note book paper. We are going to take some notes today. Now can anyone remember what we went over last class period? :Sv raises his hand: Yes Sean? No... I'm sorry we didnt get into rocket science. That's taught in the grown-up classes. Today we are going to learn basic addion. So everyone copy down 1+1 in your note book please. Now can anyone tell me what it equals to?"

"Todays math lesson"

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Mirthain
Pilot
posted 11-15- 11:32 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mirthain   Click Here to Email Mirthain     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Ummmmm.... another deadlocked budget?

Couldn't resist.. heheheheh
;}

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Mirthain=FC=

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Jerry
Pilot
posted 11-15- 11:41 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jerry   Click Here to Email Jerry     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Mirthain, I never heard Bush offer this and in fact, according the news report, he has rejected today's proposal.

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Mk10 225th
Pilot
posted 11-16- 12:00 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mk10 225th   Click Here to Email Mk10 225th     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Rgr that Jerr...hope he changes his mind and accepts it...

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Mk10 Maj=225th=

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